循环流化床锅炉燃煤技术热电厂生命周期评价

运用生命周期评价方法,应用Gabi5.0软件对采用循环流化床锅炉燃煤技术的热电企业进行资源耗竭和环境影响分析,计算各生产单元生命周期清单的全球变暖潜值、酸化效应潜值、富营养化潜值、非生物资源耗竭潜值、人体毒性潜值以及光化学烟雾和臭氧生成潜值等主要环境影响类型,对燃煤发电过程进行生命周期评价。结果表明,全球变暖和非生物资源耗竭为发电运行过程中主要的环境影响因素,分别占53%和15.05%;锅炉燃烧阶段的环境影响最重,占整个生命周期影响值的77.12%,并且除生物耗竭潜值外的其他5项指标均为发电运行阶段各个单元中最高。采用SNCR脱硝技术减少燃烧过程中NOx的排放量,并对该技术方案进行生命周期评价,比较方案实施前后的环境影响。     

运用LCA方法分析污水再生处理的成本效益

运用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,以西安市北石桥污水净化中心的污水处理与再生利用全过程为例进行环境影响评价,通过清单分析、当量计算和权重分析等一系列分析过程,计算出污水处理过程的投入成本及污水再生处理前后对环境的影响,得出污水在经过处理后,能够很大程度上减小其对环境的影响,从而产生环境正效益。该研究明确了污水处理在环境保护中的重要地位,同时对优化污水处理与再生利用工艺过程具有重要的参考价值和指导意义。     

畜牧业“碳排放”到“碳足迹”核算方法的研究进展

全球变暖趋势日益加剧,不仅影响农业可持续发展,而且威胁到人类生存。畜牧业碳排放因其在农业碳排放中乃至全球碳排放中占比较大而日益备受关注。准确核算畜牧业碳排放是制定切实可行的碳减排政策的前提,也为我国在气候变化下承担共同但有差别的减排责任提供话语权。本文基于研究范式的演进,对畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹核算方法的研究发展进行了系统梳理,研究表明,在学者的不断研究与质疑下,畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹的核算方法经历了从OECD核算法、IPCC系数法到生命周期法与投入-产出法的演变与完善,学术界认为区域异质性、养殖规模与管理方式均影响碳足迹;散养比规模化养殖产生更多的碳排放,舍饲比户外放牧排放更多的碳。畜牧业碳足迹核算能够更加全面地反映畜牧业全生命周期的碳排放情况,但由于研究假设、研究方法及研究样本等差异导致不同区域、不同畜产品的碳排放核算结果存在不确定性。运用生命周期法和投入-产出法对欧盟成员国畜牧业碳排放的核算结果基本一致,但运用IPCC系数法和全生命周期法对中国畜牧业碳排放核算中,牛、猪和羊的碳排放量排序结果不尽一致。鉴于核算结果的差异性,本研究对不同核算方法的起源、最早采用时间、特点、局限性等方面进行了归纳总结,并建议后续研究探讨基于生命周期评价的畜牧业碳足迹研究边界的延伸性,标准化畜牧业碳排放或碳足迹核算,避免学者重复核算畜牧业碳排放,以便深入展开畜牧业碳排放其他方面的研究。     

ABR处理硫酸盐有机废水的BP神经网络建模

通过厌氧折流板反应器(ABR)处理硫酸盐有机废水的实验数据对BP神经网络进行训练,建立了ABR处理硫酸盐有机废水的BPNN模型,通过测试对比,找出了较优训练函数为traingda,较优训练次数为1 900.利用分割连接权值法(PCW)对影响出水SO42-和COD的主要因素进行分析,结果显示进水COD、SO42-、pH、COD/SO42-和HRT对出水SO42-和COD均产生一定影响,其中进水pH对出水SO42-和COD的影响最大,相对重要性(RI)指数分别为30.79％和23.44％;并通过样本试验数据分别建立了对SO42-和COD去除率的限制因子仿真模型,为预测硫酸盐有机废水的厌氧处理过程提供指导.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Defining Observable Biological Potential1

Abstract: Urbanization represents a strong and increasingly more prevalent impact on stream quality worldwide. One of the characteristic effects of increased urbanization is a consistent decline in biological stream condition. The characterization of this biological degradation with increasing urbanization presents a number of advantages for the study and management of urban streams and catchments. In this paper, the limitation of biological condition with urbanization, called observed biological potential, is characterized. Using an urban intensity index and a biological index developed specifically for urban systems in the Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and San Jose, California regions, two principal techniques were compared (quantile regression and bin regression) to define observed biological potential along urban gradients. Quantile regression was selected as the preferable tool for describing observed biological potential given the consistency with which it can be applied and its statistical efficiency, however, bin quantile regression performed similarly. Having identified a numeric approximation of observed biological potential, two methods for identifying factors related to distance from potential as a way of identifying critical environmental factors affecting biological condition in urban areas were explored. The results of this work can be used for identifying benchmarks for urban stream biological condition, identifying limiting catchment characteristics, and prioritizing urban stream management efforts.     

对水泥企业生产环境负荷之浅析

基于生命周期理论，采用CNI环境影响评价方法对我国水泥生产的环境负荷进行了定量分析。结果表明：水泥生产的环境影响主要体现在温室效应、不可再生能源消耗和不可再生资源消耗，其环境负荷分别占对应环境影响类型世界总负荷的2.76％，2.34％和1.39％，2006年我国水泥生产的环境负荷约占世界总负荷的1.28％，其中，立窑生产工艺、湿法回转窑生产工艺和新型干法生产工艺的环境负荷分别为0.84％，0.12％和0.32％。通过行业结构调整，用新型干法生产工艺取代其他落后的生产工艺，可使我国水泥生产的环境负荷降至世界总负荷的1％左右。     

Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada

Estimating prediction uncertainty for a single tree-based model is hindered by the complex structure of these models. In this paper, we addressed this issue with a case study applied to northern hardwood stands in Québec, Canada. SaMARE is a stochastic single tree-based model that was designed for these types of stands. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the model can provide a mean predicted value and its confidence limits for some plot-level attributes.The mean predicted values were compared to observed values in terms of bias and accuracy. In addition to these common statistics, we compared nominal coverage of Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals with real (observed) coverage to verify the adequacy of the simulated uncertainty. A comparison was made using several plot-level attributes, which exhibited an increasing discriminative complexity. This complexity ranges from coarse attributes, such as all-species basal area, up to more complex ones, such as basal area for stems of a particular species and with sawlog potential.The results showed that in terms of absolute value, biases were small, but could be relatively high with respect to the average observed value when the discriminative complexity of the attribute increased. The comparison between nominal and real coverage of confidence intervals gave satisfactory results for all-species plot-level attributes. However, for some species-specific attributes, the Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals overestimated the real coverage.     

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used philosophical animal ethics theories to understand the moral basis of FMA convictions. Moreover, these theories provide us with a moral language for communication between animal ethics, FMAs, and public debates. We defend that FMA is a two-layered concept. The first layer consists of deeply felt convictions about animals. The second layer consists of convictions derived from the first layer to serve as arguments in a debate on animal issues. In a debate, the latter convictions are variable, depending on the animal issue in a specific context, time, and place. This variability facilitates finding common ground in an animal issue between actors with opposing convictions.     

电磁阀贮存寿命加速试验技术研究

首先陈述了贮存寿命加速试验的基本原理,介绍电磁阀的结构组成,分析了失效模式和失效机理后,采取恒定应力加速试验方法,然后运用极大似然估计和最小二乘法对数据进行处理,最后得出其贮存寿命等结论。     

长筒石蒜(Lycoris longituba)种球的无性繁殖试验

以长筒石蒜球茎为材料开展其无性繁殖试验,研究切割方式、植物生长调节剂及浓度3种因素对其子球性状的影响。结果显示:①人工繁育可明显提高种球的繁殖率,切割方式对种球的繁殖率无显著影响,而植物生长调节剂对繁殖率有极显著影响,其浓度对繁殖率也有显著影响,试验最佳处理为"茎盘沟切NAA250",其繁殖率为12.9;②切割方式无论是对子球的平均质量还是平均直径均有显著影响,其中处理"切片扦插GA330"作用下的子球平均质量最重(5.8g)、平均直径(1.2cm)最大。